The news channels are filled with three pronged discussions
between AAP, Congress and BJP representatives. While this should have been the
case if the state elections of Delhi alone were happening, we are facing all
India Lok Sabha elections. Also, anyone observing ground realities
knows that the real fight is still between BJP and Congress.
So, why is AAP
getting the limelight? This party whom different poll forecast agencies are
giving just around 3% vote share nationally & is virulently anti-media
should not have been getting so much media space. This is an interesting
question which is being raised by many and we will come back to it towards the
end of this blog. Meanwhile have a look at typical twitter exchange on this.
Understanding Mainstream
Media (MSM) role in elections
If AAP is so insignificant in real fight between BJP &
Congress, why did I bring up AAP in the discussion? For that, we need to go
back few years and see the rise of Narender Modi. From being a pariah to
becoming the PM candidate of chief opposition party is an incredible story. In
last elections of 2009, Modi was just a regional leader and Congress led UPA had
won overwhelming victory. Many believe that UPA victory happened due to a
successful economy. If that were to be the reason, BJP would not have lost in
2004 when economy was even better. In my view, India mainstream media (MSM)
played a significant role in Congress’s victory in 2009. I will mention just
few of the incidents & how media treated them below.
One of the biggest news of 2008 was ‘Hindu terror’ and
Muthalik’s goons beating few kids in a Pub. The Muthalik action as captured on
camera was played in loop for days as if whole nation’s freedom was in danger. The
‘Hindu terror’ was played for a month as prominent news till Mumbai attack
happened. MSM went into overboard in 2009 on eve of elections on alleged
inflammatory speech by Varun Gandhi. As per one estimate, it was played for 347
times in matter of days. Repeated whole day video runs of Muthalik, Varun intended
to scare liberal middle class and minorities of BJP led Govt. and it succeeded.
Also, MSM overplayed Manmohan’s ‘Singh is King’ victory on nuclear deal and
decided not to play alleged purchase of candidates for voting in its favor.
But all this paled in comparison to the demonization of Narender
Modi by mainstream media from 2002 onwards. Countless number of hours were
devoted on his supposed mishandling of riots and every critic given divine
connotations. Like most of other Indian folks, I too was convinced till 2009
that Modi is an absolute evil. Any mention of him in positive connotation would
feel distasteful. So even when I heard few instances of his good development
work, they were conveniently ignored. I believe this mindset of mine
represented majority of Indian’s.
Rise of Social
Media and Modi
Many people could see the obvious bias of MSM but there was
no outlet. Media was the king, there were no questions which could be asked and
it could swing voters the way as it willed. The anchors who vilified Modi were
given Padma awards. NGOs which stood up against Modi got funding from many
sources and used it as they wished. Public intellectuals who spoke against Modi
became the darling of Media and got invitations for Lit fests. Following tweet summarizes
what many felt about this circus.
And as this tweet above mentions, Twitter happened and
exploded in its Indian reach within years. When I joined in 2010, I was amused
at first to see that there are so many people who are fed up of one sided
Indian media discourse. And surprise of surprises, there were people who
supported Modi (The DEVIL!!). His supporters consisted of a variety of
successful professionals who provided an alternate discourse. An example with
all timelines and data of 2002 riots is here http://kiranasis.blogspot.in/2011/09/godhra-train-burning-yet-another-rewind.html
. Slowly and slowly it was becoming clear to me (And many others) even before
SIT clean chit that anti-Modi stand of was most elaborate ‘Media hoax’ of last
decade. It was intended to benefit Congress electorally and it indeed worked in
2004 & 2009. Congress as well as MSM were confident of this well-established
‘winning mechanism’ but it was about to be broken.
By 2011, Twitter folks were well aware of Media-Hoax and
there was a tremendous anger against certain media barons and Divas(#PaidMedia).
When a media icon (Now widely lampooned as Bimbo) coined the term ‘Internet
Hindus’, it was not born out of some creative thought process but an anguish on
being relentlessly attacked, lampooned and asked questions on social media which
she had no answer to. Hypocrisy of MSM in the name of secularism was exposed
and they were at their weakest point. Faking News, Unreal times took this
lampooning to a new level by their well-read and circulated satires.
Meanwhile as this was happening, Modi utilized this social
media bandwagon along with professional PR to demonstrate and popularize his
development agenda in the name of ‘Gujarat Model’. Not many in Twitter were
aware of what it constituted but nevertheless were convinced that here is one
man who is disassociating from lethargic old style politician image. Modi became
an icon of young people in India.
MSM was enraged, Godhra riots bogey was re-tried and it
failed miserably. MSM latched on to anything it could get but Modi was gaining
all over. Finally MSM anchors (Free speech supporters) tried to coerce Indian Govt
in putting restrictions on Social media or ban Modi-friendly handles but there
was a massive backlash(#Emergency2012) . MSM had resigned to its fate and the
nightmare of Modi’s victory in May 2014 looked like a possibility (Horrifying
to MSM). Many tried to do a buck up to Congress but it was a lost cause.
Congress had not been serious on development agenda and with massive corruption
and useless social schemes, had caused uncontrollable inflation. It did not help
the cause that it’s nominee was Rahul Gandhi who was proving to be intellectually
inept & incapable of aggression to counter Modi. The MSM efforts to ‘evolve
him’ were also failing and he was becoming the clearest example of failure of
dynasty based politics.
So, when Modi arrived in Sri Ram College in early 2013 with
his development and youth oriented agenda, the whole country was spellbound
Now, it was more a matter of formality when his popularity would be recognized and he becomes a nominee for PM post. Winning was still a question but tremendous momentum was clear.
Now, it was more a matter of formality when his popularity would be recognized and he becomes a nominee for PM post. Winning was still a question but tremendous momentum was clear.
Kejriwal becoming
a challenger to throne
Great thing about life is that it is never static. It
surprises you when you least expect it. That’s why this blog post on Modi’s
chances in elections started with discussion on a guy named Arvind Kejriwal. He
arrived on a scene as God-send savior (Not for common man, but for MSM). Kejriwal
was charismatic and at peak of Anna Andolan in 2011, he was the guy people
really wanted to listen to. He talked the language of common man. Highlighted
the issues of root level corruption which many had become accustomed to and endeared
himself to people when Janlokpal was presented as panacea. BJP had failed to
highlight the massive corruption scandals of UPA govt as vociferously as being
done by AAP. Kejriwal intelligently used this to carve out an equivalence
between BJP & Congress on the matter of corruption. Many bought his idea
and believed him to be the man who would provide an idealistic alternative.
Just when it seemed that Modi was unstoppable, Aam Aadmi
Party received a very good response in Delhi assembly elections. Many in Media
become overt and covert supporters of his bandwagon as he looked like a man who
could dent Modi. Not just his personal charisma, Kejriwal had one thing in his
favor, the deft handling of social media. AAP became a contender for youth vote
and indeed was successful in building a team who could provide an equal battle
to Modi machinery on social media. This was clearly visible in Delhi state
elections.
During Delhi elections in Dec 13, Modi’s popularity was at
it’s peak. Even Yogender Yadav said that 30% of AAP supporters would vote for
Modi in National elections. In my view it was underestimated number. Figure
would have been as high as 50% of total AAP supporters. So, it was prudent of
Kejriwal to not go after Modi and AAP party tried to say that Modi is not going
to come & work in Delhi. So popular slogan of AAP supporters was ‘Kejriwal
for CM, Modi for PM’.
When Kejriwal got the chair of Delhi CM in December, it got unprecedented
publicity on MSM. For few days, he even eclipsed Modi’s popularity as is clear
from the below Google trends
In normal times, such euphoria dies soon and things turn to
normal but Media made AAP a sort of reality TV. Each of AAP minister was
followed 24*7 and their actions reported. Public had never seen such a
happening and were glued to their screens. All reality TV stars commit mistakes
but still public loves them as they become like their own family members. So,
media did report issues with AAP but that did not result in any dip in Kejriwal’s
popularity. Strangely while this was happening, normally active Congress
speakers like Digvijay Singh were conspicuous by their absence from TV screens
altogether.
Very soon we saw few MSM reporters (Who were virulently
anti-Modi) joining AAP. The remaining were also divided in different camps.
First time, most of the users are aware that reporters are in different camps.
It may look too natural today but 5 years back, no one was even murmuring on MSM
being biased. Many in MSM started pitching Kejriwal as contender against Modi.
Kejriwal was becoming well aware of his
rising popularity but people had started to ask questions. It was also becoming
clear even to his enthusiastic supporters that he is inexperienced & really
never wanted the CM job. His DNA is of an activist who is not used to provide
answers but can do great audits, find mistakes and ask questions to public
representatives. Kejriwal is not the typical ‘work silently and deliver’ types.
So he went back to his ‘Core competency’ of Dharna while being in Govt and it
backfired spectacularly. Being in media limelight was not helping when minister’s
like Somnath Bharti committed mistakes. It seemed that more Kejriwal’s Govt
continues, it will keep on losing the support of public. I would like to use the words of Ramalingum
Raju of Satyam in this context.
"It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without
being eaten"
Resignation was expected and it was just a matter of ‘when’
instead of ‘why’. Kejriwal prepared for it to gain maximum possible sympathy by
using his pet card of Janlokpal but the steam from it was already taken away by
Anna who accepted Congress+BJP version of Lokpal. So, while Kejriwal hogged
sympathy from certain sections of Media post his resignation, most criticized
his actions. In general public, he was pronounced as Bhagoda (One who shirks
responsibility).
Modi Losing
Momentum
Meanwhile, Modi was caught in his own battles. The
personality of Modi is ‘All or nothing’ types. He wants absolute control and
micro management and that’s why it often seems that he is a one man party. It
had worked for him in Gujarat but in national battle, there were many other
leaders who had grudgingly accepted his ascendance in party. However, they were not ready to allow him a
free reign. So, this struggle for control kept him busy elsewhere away from
election arena. Also, with Congress in disarray and elections still few months
away, Modi could relax.
Not Kejriwal, his popularity graph was dwindling. The only
way forward for Kejriwal to take this idealistic hoax of a soon coming
corruption-free utopia was by taking on a bigger challenge and that required
building a bigger villain. He needed a target, the biggest of them all and the
answer was clear, it had to be ‘Modi’. It was also a matter of cold
calculations. In Delhi election, AAP did not get wholesome support from Muslim
community who remained committed to Congress. By Taking on Modi, he could get
their sympathy. But even young folks among Muslim community had started to
think about Modi due to development & governance agenda.
Being an astute observer of social media, Kejriwal could not
have played the 2002 riot card. It would have backfired with all available
data. So he played a masterstroke. He declared a war on Modi on his development
claims and created arrest drama while touring Gujarat and his supporters
attacked BJP office in Delhi. Now, everyone in professional field knows that
numbers and statistics can be used in variety of ways. And Kejriwal has been
doing so for over a decade with a mastery in striking an emotional chord while
using his core competency of finding faults. Media lapped it up and BJP was not
sure of how to respond to it as they wanted to ignore Kejriwal and keep focus
on fighting the Congress. He upped the ante by declaring to fight against Modi
from Varanasi and did so in his characteristic style of drama by ‘asking people
of Varanasi who attended his rally’. One of the widely shared comic below
captures this.
But Why is Kejriwal’s actions so important in election
context when he is known as Bhagoda and for his numerous u-turns. We have to
understand basic psychology for that. Most people cannot hold on to too many
thoughts in their mind. The limited mindspace of general public was effectively
occupied by Modi with his Governance and development agenda and is now muddled
by Kejriwal’s attacks. Anger against Congress has subsided as its scams are no
longer in news. Also, Kejriwal’s online army is easily able to handle Modi’s
army which was used to easily decimate Congress folks (derisively called
eNAREGA army). In my general conversations, I have seen many of erstwhile Modi supporters
starting to believe all parties are same and have become disillusioned with
whole electoral process itself. The will not vote or may use NOTA.
Lets look at what Congress has been doing meanwhile. Rahul
Gandhi gave a disastrous interview to Arnab Goswami in January this year and
was universally ridiculed. It seemed that Congress has reached its end. But we
are finding Congress to be fighting a good battle in many states. Rahul is not
under scrutiny post Arnab interview and his conduct is a reason for this
upsurge.
With a rejuvenated Congress, attacking AAP and it’s own
troubles, BJP has lost it’s momentum. If urgent steps are not taken, it should
say goodbye to it’s mission 272.
How can BJP reach it's mission 272
Few days back, I was in New Delhi for a personal visit. This
place is the backbone of AAP. I expected widespread support for Kejriwal and I
was surprised when I asked people
Less support for AAP does not mean increasing support for
BJP. Also the situation is changing fast. With Kejriwal’s successful road show
like he did in Chandni Chowk yesterday, he may regain support. So, my
prediction on March 20th is likely to be wrong if BJP does not get its act to-gather.
BJP army is trying to fight Modi by using terms like AK-49,
Pakistani agent or the poster below
In my view, these are negative tactics and are not helping win over voters. It can only help in retaining the current set. Modi needs to take this fight in positive sense instead of defensive tactics. Let there be debate on economy, governance, capitalism and Marxism.
Modi may feel that Gujarat development is a known fact all
over India which is not true. Kejriwal has found issues with it, so the
development story needs to be aggressively highlighted through Modi’s mouth. However,
Modi should not directly attack Kejriwal but should allow an attack from his
stage by intelligently using someone like Swamy. BJP should make it clear
that Kejriwal’s attack on ‘Crony capitalism’
is nothing but an attack on capitalism itself which is going to harm business
and job generation. People should be told about the issues with hung parliament
and effect on their lives.
AAP supporter's are impulsive, emotional and outspoken. And they are always agitated. Jaggi in firstpost.com had given an example of a kid who makes a scene in a mall. The best way to handle such a kid is by being rational and assertive. This will impress any of the onlookers while any kind of aggression will give a bad impression. When AAP is tamed, especially in its home in Delhi, it will give BJP an amazing fillip towards its mission.
But as I mentioned
before, real story is the comeback on Congress and AAP is just one of the
reasons.
The fight is in Slog overs, this is time to do minimum
mistakes and maximum calculated attacks. BJP has placed all it’s bets in Modi.
Now, he has to take the fight in his hands. Ensure that no u-turns or any other
kind of mistakes are done while stepping up the aggression. It is a difficult
task but I believe Modi can do so.